Rapid awareness and transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in hanoi french hospital, Vietnam

Архивировано 23.12.2020: nishiura-2005.pdf

Источник: Nishiura H., et al. Rapid awareness and transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hanoi French Hospital, Vietnam. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2005, 73(1):17-25.

A case-control study was conducted to examine the relationship between severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the time-dependent precautionary behaviors taken during an outbreak of SARS in Hanoi French Hospital (HFH), Vietnam. Masks (odds ratio [OR] = 0.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1, 0.7) and gowns (OR = 0.2; 95% CI: 0.0, 0.8) appeared to prevent SARS transmission. The proportion of doctors and nurses who undertook each measure significantly improved (χ2 = 9.8551, P = 0.043) after the onset of secondary cases. The impact of individual behaviors on an outbreak was investigated through mathematical approaches. The reproduction number decreased from 4.1 to 0.7 after notification. The basic reproduction number was estimated, and the use of masks alone was shown to be insufficient in containing an epidemic. Intuitive results obtained by means of stochastic individual-based simulations showed that rapid improvements in behavior and isolation would increase the probability of extinction.